Monday, June 8, 2009

Congrats, zelenite!

If these elections had been about European questions, all Bulgarian parties could be pleased with the results:

Zelenite didn't make it to Brussels, but got around 1%. Not bad for the first time. The Greens did a wonderful election in Europe, and have better representation than before. There are more opportunties for green politics in the European parliament than ever.

The blue coalition did a good election,

and GERB won decisively. They both participate in the European people's party group, that wond decisively over the socialists.

DPS, the Turkish minority party defended themselves well. In the EU parliament the belong to the same liberal group as NDSV, whose Meglena Kuneva made an excellent personal campaign.

The Bulgarian socialists held their stance better than most comrades in Europe, though. Much better than Gordon Brown, for example.

In addition to this EPP have claimed that they want to create a "big coalition" together with the liberals and the socialists, to deny the far right, green and far left groups any influence.

Lider, another populist party made a surpirsingly good election and are surely happy about that.

Ataka woud rejoice, not only about their own position as nr. 3 in Bulgaria, but over the much larger far right group in the EU parliament. And they will get at least as much money from the EU parliament as UK's BNP gets.

Not so... In Bulgaria, as everywhere else in Europe, the EU elections are nothing but a final rehersal ahead of the real, national elections. Quite rightly so, as the commission, representin the national governments still holds gar more power than the EU parliament.

I don't think anyone reard themselves as winners in Bulgaria yet. It's pretty much like in the pause between second and third period in ice hockey...

There have been claims about votes being bought and sold. The blue coalition and Lider wants the votes to be recounted.(I will not comment anything on this on this blog before anyone is sentenced, since it is a very serious allegation.)

Gerb is leading... but from here it can only go downwards.
The Socialists now know that they are weaker than Gerb. Time is running out for hanging that.
DPS might be able to produce a similar result in the national elections. But if the Socialists don't form the next government they are toast.
Zelenite.. I don't know what they think about the result yet. But the chance to enter the parliament in these elections look small.
If these results were national, the Blue Coalition might well govern with Gerb. I would not send Bojko Borisov to in meetings Europe. Martin Dimitrov has a much more European and delicate image that wouldn't cause any scandals in Brussels. But if the blue coalition wants to influence Gerbs poltics, they will wnat to take as many voters as possible - compared to Gerb.
Lider and NDSV must bet on a coalition with someone, but with whom?

I guess Ataka has the least to worry about. They are not allied with any one, and might end up with 10-15% in opposition. A dream position for right wing populists.

In the end - in politics everything can and will happen. Less than 50% voted in these elections, so there is plenty of room for surprises.

No comments: