Global heating craps Borisovs anti-crisis policy, but salvation might be imminent.

If you only will read three... eh... five words today, read these:

----The communists lost in Moldova----

If you've decided to read more, find the news on New York Times or the BBC .

The new government will have a lot to deal with, as do the new Bulgarian. And the biggest problems might not even be corruption...

In an earlier post I praised Bojko Borisov, Bulgarias new premier minister for putting agriculture on the agenda. Borisov stressed that employment in the agricultural sector is an important buffer in times of unemployment and the need to develop the Bulgarian countryside. It might be bullshit, but at least the guy has spotted an important problem.

One week the Bulgarian ministry of agriculture announced that the agriculture output in Bulgaria will be ca 20% lower in 2009 than in 2008, Noggers Blog reports. And it is not only Bulgaria...

Similar numbers are announced on marketskeptics . Argentina, Ukraine, the US, Russia... all report falling sales. Sometimes aggravated by bad politicians, but the main reason is one - heat and drought. Caused by climate change.


On marketskeptics you can see a nice graph of the sugar price hitting an all time high, so I guess food prices are set to get higher globally... but maybe we should be happy as long as there is something to eat.

As gloomy as these numbers sound, there is no reason to despair. I am sure most people who read this blog can easily consume 20% less in general. Myself I could easily eat 20% less if I had to. Maybe I should try it next week... to take a single hot dog in stead of a double, 33 cl of beer in stead of 50 cl...

Food is important. In the interconnected world it is very easy to forget that the coffe you drink actually come from a plantation, dependent on water and sun etc... Sometimes I feel the internet has only alienated us even further from this basic reality. That's why I was really happy to see the homepage of Smaka på Skåne.

Skåne is the southernmost region in Sweden, whereto I will soon move. If you write "potato" in the search field, you will get results where in Skåne you can buy potatoes produced on local farms. Food that has not travelled all over the world letting out CO2 and poison. It is just genius, a combination of internet technology and local farming.

This one is only in Swedis for obvious(?) reasons. But I guess it could be easily translated.

The picture is purely there for aestetical reasons, taken in Texas in 1955. It is taken from flickr, credits to austrini, found through creative commons

Bojko appoints new ministers

Bojko Borisov, Bulgarias next premier minister, has today appointed the ministers to sit in his government. In case you need an introduction to Bojko Borisov, make sure you don't miss BBC presentation of him.

While the names might be unknown for those with only brief knowledge of Bulgarian politics, like me, there are no huge surprises.

The appointments seem to be technocratical rather than partisan. In general the apontees seem to have a considerable experience form political work, and to be respected also outside the party GERB.

Sofia News Agency have comments from European/Bulgarian pundits on the new government

Ecologists seemed to have welcomed the appointment of Nona Karadjova as minister of ecology. She has a good reputation form many active years. Among other things she hav organised waste separation and recycling of plastic and glass. In the linked article she gets some kudos from the package business that she managed to cooperate with.

In deed - this is no time for surprises. GERB are very vocal with their aim to turn Bulgarian into an European state, an eye is carefully kept on Brussels (and the EU funding). Also in the parliaments declaration of what it intends to work for, European interation is the top priority now.

All this written from a netbook over a wireless connction in Sofias Starbucks. Like a real blogpost should be...

Vote for Kostov, you get Borisov...

Before the elections, a for me completley unknown party called Nova Zora (New Dawn) ,bought advertisements on Youtube, saying "If you vote for Borisov, you will get Kostov". Ivan Kostov is the leader of DSB, one of the leading parties within the Blue Coalition. He was also Bulgarias premier minister 1997-2001. He is a highly controversial person, a fact that this video tried to exploit to prevent people to vote for Borisov.

The video failed, as we all know, and GERB won 40% of the Bulgarian votes. Since minority government is not typical for Bulgarian politics, observers expected Borisov to seek coalition partners, and most expected these to be the blue coalition. After all it would be rather difficult to regain European confidence in Bulgarian politics with RZS or Ataka as coalition partners.

Since the elections negotiations have been going on. Eventually Borisov published memorandum that he wanted all parties except for the socialists and the turkosh DSP tio sign, to guarantee support in the parliament, but to form a GERB minority government, open for individuals from other parties in case they have special competencies.

Today Bulgarian media announce that the blue coalition as well as RZS refuse to sign any agreement with GERB, but  say that they will vote for proposals that go along with their politics in the parliament... (eh? Would they vote against them otherwise?) Ataka gladly signed GERB's memorandum, though...

This might not mean anything in real politics, since Borisov will be more careful with support form Brussels than from Ataka, and all parties will likely support anything else than BSP+DSP. But online the discussion is rather hot, see for example Dnevniks discussion about the news and I would guess that tensions are rising between GERB and the blue coalition. It is just a guess, though...

I would be a little sad if I had voted for the blue coalition. You vote for Kostov (and SDS's Martin Dimitrov) but get Borisov... personally I would prefer Kostov.

Let's hope

I just finished reading yesterdays issue of Kapital, a newspaper I admire for its flawless journalism more than the somewhat naive faith in market liberalism. Of course the entire newpaper this week is about Bojko Borisovs new government. Kapital's hopes are: a) that Borisov will keep his promises and b) that he will cooperate with the blue alliance and noone else to gets support in the parliament.

Many Bulgarians I meet would agree... after all the previous government was vry corrupt, and any politician who can deal with the corruption is welcome. Let's hope Borisov can do it. They sem to agree with the Economist's catchy phrasing: "EXASPERATED voters boot out a bad government and install an unknown one."

Borisov is not very unknown. As Kapital points out, Bulgarians have been able to follow him for a ong time, as head of the ministry of interior and as mayor of Sofia. But the party GERB is new,and most of its deputies are not known faces. In deed, this parliament will ahve more first time deputies than any previous.

But there are also quite some Bulgarians who have seen Borisov, and don't like him at all. The city is right now filled with posters indicating that GERB are mutri the bulgarian word for mafiosi. Borisovs history of as a body guard of communist and post communist leaders, in the ministry of interior etc. might indicate something more like Putin (ex-KGB) than Barack Obama.

Maybe the crucial dilemma is this: in order to clean out corruption a very strong leadership will be neede, one that can ignore the parliament when needed. But what happens to democracy?

Kaptial seemed pleased with Borisovs initial moves, and confident about the people he has appointed to reform justice and get the budet in order. Me mayself I can't really come to terms with Borisovs "unconvential" behavior. Being an Eu memeber might prevent him from beocoming a Putin, but not from becoming a Berlusconi. But sure... let's hope!

An epiphany

I usually take a walk around the office building for lunch. It is really too hot for that now, as the latter part of the walk is an uphill concrete landscape in burning sun.

Today I noticed that there was something strange going on. Cars were parkeed along the road, and there was a traffic jam, and plenty of policemen. And there were lots of busses parked. Old bussed. I asked one guy, a driver for a tv tema what was going on, and... Bulgarias new Prime minister, Bojko Borisov, had descended on our street to inaugurate a plenty of new busses.

The busses are suposed to replae the dead old buses on almost every line, I don't know how many they are, but I saw at least 30 with my bare eye, and a pleased bus driver said there was plenty. I asked him what he thought about Borisov and he said that new powers are almost welcome.

There was no doubt about the joy in the audience. A cleaning Roma laydy was so glad, she even told me it was the happiest day in her life "This is my boss! (She works for Sofia Municipality, Borisov was the mayor) "I have only seen him on TV, and now he is standing right here in front of me!"

New busses are badly needed, of course. It's a pity they were all diesel buses. I don't know Borisov's view on climate change or peak oil.

So what does GERB want?

I have, like most outside observers, routinely described the winners in the Bulgarian elections as "right wing populists". Since they will be the dominating force, I think it is time to look into what they actually want, and what politics they see fit for Bulgaria.

On their site gerb.bg, a Crisis program is published, declarating how GERB will face the looming economical crisis.

First of all GERB do acknowledge that there is a sever crisis. This has been one point of the debate - the right said that the crisis is much more sever than the socialists accepted.

Here is a quick translation of the programme. My comments in italics.

Public dialogue about the crisis management.
GERB wows to invite trade unions(!) and business interest to discuss the politics needed with the political leadership.
This can of course mean anything between empty words and corporativism... everything depends on who attends these meetings, and who decides in the end. Will environmental organisations participate, for example?

Immediate actualization of the state budget
GERB wows to look over the budget and stop wasting money on stupid projects, to redirect them to where they really help. Everything of course depends on what projects are cut, but under the current circumstances my guess is that it means less social spending.

The Euro-funds, a sure way to deal with the crisis
Bulgaria lost billions of promised EU money due to corruption last year. GERB wows to fight corruption and clean up in the administration so that the money can return. Succeeding with this would obviously mean a lot to Bulgaria. It will take both guts and intelligence. I say good luck, and note that the "right wing populist" seem to trust state intervention more than free markets.

Agriculture - lets revive traditions and create work places
GERB should have praise for realizing the importance of the agricultural sector. Three ways to support this sector are pointed out: Monetary support/credit help to farmers, an animal identification system that makes possible European subsidies per animal and a petition for extra support money from the European commission 2010-1023. All these involve European money which makes me worried. First of all, if GERB for some reason doesn't manage to restore European trust these money don't exist. Second of all, European agricultural policy is horrible, and is built to help agricultural enterprise out-compete local competition.

Tax stimulus - let the money stay with people and businesses
In normal English this means tax cuts, and less state spending. I fear cuts will come in the social sector because...

Infrastructure policy
under this point, further down in the document, GERB wows to invest heavily in infrastructure projects like highways. Unlike the agriculture, these investments don't seem to depend on EU funding, and the money must come from somewhere... obviously not from increased taxes.

Improved business climate
Measures here included less red tape, lowered registration fees etc. There is probably much to be done, aide! GERB, start working!

Incentives for investments
Among other things GERB wants to give local authorities a stronger mandate to attract investments. I can not say much about this, it can be anything to me. No doubt investments are needed... but the bigger the money, and the more hands that deal with it, the more corruption, as the story with the EU money shows.

Education and social help
GERB sees a need of better education that is more fit for business needs, and opens for letting business finance students that study things that are relevant for their needs.
GERB wants to stimulate unemployed to start their own business, and mentions support to civil initiatives for poor and elderly. Less state intervention here, thus... but it is probably also a sheer necessity, as the Bulgarian state is unlikely to cover these needs.

Bulgaria is not alone
Bulgaria is not alone and GERB wants to fight the crisis together with European and International institutions. This might mean applying for an IMF loan, like Romania recently did.

More ideas are to come as we fight against the crisis, GERB promises. We look forward to that.

European support for center right coalition

The central right opposition in Bulgaria is currently forming a coalition ahead of the elections. The liberals SDS and DSB have agreed to cooperate, a decision that is supported by leading circles on the European People's Party, the conservative/ christ democratic group in the EU parliament.

The information comes from Andreas von Belov, head of Konrad Adenauer foundation in Bulgaria. He welcomes a cetner right government that is founded on SDS, DSB and Bojko Borisov's GERB

(As a reference: Swedish members of the European People's Party are Moderaterna and Kristdemokraterna)

Source: Martin Dimitrov's blog

Jailbirds clean the streets of Sofia

Update from yesterday: The streets are not cleaned like normally, but they are cleaned according to some less intensive schedule.

Waste disposal is not my main focus with this blog, but as far as I know now, and I advice anyone to read the commetns from readers on eralier posts, this is part of a bigger power struggle in Bulgarian society. It's clear that Bojko Borisov have many enemies with mor eor less hidden agendas.

Bojkos answer to the current situation is controversial, to say the least - prisoners clean the streets.

Sources: bTV, Darik News,

Garbage protests

 As far as I have seen, waste disposal is working normally in Sofia again. But today 300 workers from the company that lost the contract with Sofia Municipality, protested in Sofia.

 Unlike previous protests, this one was aimed at the municipality, and mayor Bojko Borisov, and according to Darik News all protesters were romas.

 The ex-workers protest against the municipality's decision to end the contract, and say that they have been pleased with their emplyer, that payed out salaries in time.

 The fact that all waste disposal workers in fact ARE roma indicates an ethnical dimension that is very clear in Bulgarian society, but has yet to be articulated in a political protest.

Garbage

 The streets of Sofia are filled with garbage this week. Garbage has been a major issue between the Bulgarian socialist government and Bojko Borisov, the mayor of Sofia, for a long time. This is the last row in a conflict, where both sides claim that the other is responsible.

 The entrepeneur responsible for cleaning Sofias, Novera, claims that the city of Sofia has not fulfilled its obligations regarding payments. The contract runs out 1st of April. Novera refuses to work since three days. According to Darik, the streets in front of the presidential palace are clean, though.

 The municipality have appointed a working group, promising to solve the situation in two days.

 The response from "Pisna Ni!" a news site close to the protesters is to call for civil disobedience in case the situation is not resolved in two days. The proposed action is to take garbage form the streets and put it in front of the parliament.

Citizens that think that Borisov is guilty, not the government, can put their garbage in front of his office in stead, Pisna Ni! says.

Source: Bulgaria e nasha
 

SDS and GERB

The right wing opposition is preparing for the upcoming elections. A working breakfast have been held including all the major parties.

 On Martin Dimitrov's blog the SDS MP reports of differences in perceptin between SDS and GERB.


The tension is quite undersderstandable as the ideological difference between rather ideologically oriented SDS and the populist GERB suggest hostile relations. On teh other hand Bojko Borisov has a position that noone else can claim on the right wing, and any government excluding the socialists and DSP will most likely include GERB.

"bad human material"

The story about Bojko Borisovs Chicago speech continues. Premier minister Sergej Stanishew has announced that he on the contrary sees the Bulgarian people as the country's strongest asset. Borisov has sent his speech in scripted form to the European Commission to answer the Socialists accusation of racism.

On novinite.com , the English speaking version of Darik a poll has been posted for a couple of days:




Only members on the site can vote, and I am not, so i don't knwo if it possible to vote for more than one alternative. Nr. 1 and 3 are logically compatible so maybe... I am very sad to see this, though.

Which mandate?

Bulgaria e nasha have two new posts.

1. A video from the protests 4th of february. It reccomend it also for non-bulgarian speakers. The slogans say that "Democracy is dead", "Wake up the people" etc. That is also the reason that people hold wake up clocks.  the Ser Go Home! campaign is not launched by SDS as I earlier said but by
   DSB, another liberal opposition party that claim a dissident heritage
2. A theoretical post by Bogomil Shopov. Bogomil critizes the current "free mandate" system, where the MP is not required to vote according to the promises he gave the voters. In stead he is under pressure from the party.

Democracy is not a simple thing. If the voters are to have a direct influence over the MP's, the system will tend to be majoritarian. In a majority system the winner takes it all, and small parties have ver difficult to work. Bogomil writes that DSB are not happy about the idea, and I believe they have a good reason for that, being one of the smaller and less populistic parties in Bulgaria.


One of the significant things about knowledge is that it comes too late. Today first I read an article on the web site bgfactor, that is highly critical about the government, written 12 January, inviting Bulgarians to participate in the protests 14th of January.

The article names who arep protesting and why. These are the new findings that i didn't know or didn't publish, found in the text :

• Bojko Borisov's GERB did not state their support for the protests. (This is the official versions, ther are rumours that they do support the protesting milkfarmers)
• DSB call on its members and sympathizers to participate in the protest.
• Football fans from numerous clubs stated already before that they would protest.

The text is illustrated with pictures from 10th of january 1997, when disowned and furios Bulgarians stormed the parliament and forced the socialist government to resign.

Rumble in Chicago

Bojko Borisov, the main political opponent of the socialist government, and widely held as favorite ahead of the upcoming elections, has been in Chicago. There he held a speech for assembled Bulgarian immigrants that has become a hot topic.

According to his adversaries in the Socialist party, Borisov claimed that the main problem in Bulgaria is the human material, 1 mln gypsies, 800 000 turks and 2,5 million retired citizens living in poverty and nostalgia. Kiril Dobrev, a Bulgarian socialist member of the European parliament call Borisov's speech a political suicide, and will take up the happenings as a case of discrimination and racism for the European commission.

Borisov, whose party sports the European Union stars on their posters have answered. He says that he respects and always have respected the Bulgarian people as a whole, including ethnic minorities like gypsies, turks and others. The problem is not as the socialists claim that he said the human material. The problem is that the political class at the moment in power uses these groups despair to deceive them.